‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Tightens India's Cooking-Gas Supplies.
The repercussions of a war being fought nearly 3,000km away are now being felt in India's homes.
As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, stocks of cooking gas are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to reduce offerings, shorten hours and in some cases shut down altogether.
Social media is flooded by video clips showing lines outside LPG distributors across Indian urban and rural areas as worries over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in restaurant kitchens.
"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a representative of the National Restaurant Association of India.
Most eateries run either on business-grade gas tanks or direct gas lines, and the shortages are now being felt across the country. "Numerous restaurants have closed - some in Delhi, many in the southern states. People are adopting traditional burners and induction stoves to keep kitchens going."
Localized Effects
In a financial hub, local news say up to a significant portion of hospitality businesses are already operating at reduced capacity as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some establishments say their fuel reserves have depleted with little backup. "We can only make coffee and nothing else - it is nothing less than pathetic. Operations will be impacted," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.
Restaurant owners are seeking alternatives. "Food options are being cut, some are cutting lunch service and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that closures are changing as supplies wax and wane. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a dynamic scenario."
Retailers report a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are running out of them.
Government Stance
Yet, the officials insists there is sufficient stock.
India has more than 300 million domestic LPG users and authorities say cylinders are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the war in the Gulf ripple through energy markets.
About 60% of India's LPG is imported, and about the vast majority of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic bottleneck now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.
The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about a significant margin. Commercial stock is being allocated for vital industries such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".
"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been triggered by misinformation. The regular refill period for household cylinders remains about 60 hours," says a senior official.
Widening Concern
Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of two-wheelers outside a petrol pump. "Concern is genuine," the description reads.
According to data from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader energy security may be exaggerated.
India imports 90% of its petroleum. Around half of its crude oil imports - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from regional suppliers.
Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the shortfall could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a sector expert.
Based on vessel tracking and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.
Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness
The real vulnerability is LPG, experts note.
India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the Strait.
Refineries can adjust processes to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only lift domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.
In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be moderately reduced through varied suppliers. Processed petroleum stocks remains relatively comfortable. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to watch in the coming weeks."
What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but uneven distribution - and the familiar spectre of panic buying.
An industry representative states opportunistic profiteering.
"Retailers are misusing the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold to the highest bidder."
For now, India's energy imports may be buffered by global trade flows. But in restaurants across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.
