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On occasions when the wind blows northwest from Belarus, Lithuania prepares for issues.

That is when enormous inflatables are launched across the border, with boxes of cheap cigarettes swinging beneath.

Over the last two and a half months, this illicit balloon traffic has compelled Lithuania's main airport into suspension 15 times, stranding thousands of travellers.

On a single instance, the national skies was closed completely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the authorities are certain they are confronting something far more hostile than mere smugglers.

They assert the balloons have been "weaponised" in an example of unconventional conflict by Belarus, an ally of the Kremlin.

State of Alert

The Lithuanian government has instituted an official alert.

While balloons have been used by smugglers before, their numbers increased dramatically this October.

"Naturally it began as organised crime activity, but we've seen more than once how Belarus instrumentalises organised crime to have an effect on adjacent states," a senior official stated.

The official noted the balloons are launched from locations that help them best disrupt Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If you want to conduct a contraband run, you'd do it in the forests or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister argued.

Instead, there is a view that the balloons represent a form of diplomatic leverage on Europe's eastern edge.

"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the realm of national security."

Nocturnal Operations

Now, every night, border units patrol in the frontier area.

The balloons are primarily seen during the night.

Units establish temporary roadblocks on remote country roads, checking drivers' documents and examining vehicles in search of anyone connected to the smuggling networks.

The balloons fly too high to make intercepting them with firearms a safe or economic option.

Consequently, the government has offered a substantial reward to any company that can devise how to intercept them.

Currently, teams use advanced tracking systems to track the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the landing sites.

Soon, new criminal charges for acts of sabotage should also act as a preventive measure.

Strategic Motives

The frontier line is now marked by a high security barrier, with barbed wire and fortifications.

This extra security is a clear sign of how Lithuania now views its neighbour as adversarial.

Not far away, the leader of Belarus has rejected all talk of hybrid warfare as "nonsense".

He recently blamed "criminal" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and getting creative to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to a history of hybrid tactics.

In 2021, migrants were assisted to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, creating a manufactured emergency.

"Now they are doing a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, precisely targeted at the airport," explained a crisis management official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it tomorrow. But they don't. That implies it benefits them."

The belief is that Belarus is trying to bully its way into reducing international restrictions.

"They want to draw diplomatic focus and compel us to change our policies towards Belarus," is how one minister interprets the sudden influx of balloons.

The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as president following contested votes in 2020 and a subsequent repression.

Sanctions were levied then and tightened later when Belarus aided Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the diplomatic ostracism of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister stated.

Economic and Social Impact

For now, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.

"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already moved its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.

Revenue losses for all impacted companies are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.

"One thing is the extra cost, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose confidence in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers consult a dedicated website for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's not easy, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.

"I am convinced this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really funny to fly those balloons and then mock us."

Her words suggest that another aim of such covert tactics – sowing discontent – is also working, and perhaps more difficult to counter.

"They're basically testing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even deal with simple balloons. We're not even prepared for the basic stuff."