Beyond the Ceremony of Putin's Delhi Trip: The Indo-Russian Bond That Has Diminished.

This rhetoric and optics from Russian President Vladimir Putin's latest official trip to India spoke of a strong bilateral relationship. Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the airport with a hug, and the statesmen took a ride together, mirroring a known political style. In his address, Modi called Putin as "my friend" and described the Indo-Russian bond as a "guiding star", built on "shared respect and deep trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This was Putin's 10th visit to India over his 25-year tenure and his 20th meeting with Modi after the latter assumed office in 2014.

A Divide Separating Symbolism and Reality

Yet, a clear gap persists between the ceremony and the actual content of this partnership. While Putin pledged "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, Indian refiners are in fact buying a reduced amount of Russian oil in the face of international pressure. The two nations signed a series of memorandums of understanding covering mobility, health, agriculture, naval cooperation, and academic collaboration. But, expected announcements on major defence contracts did not materialize. India has abstained from any major defence agreements with Russia following the 2022's offensive of Ukraine, a situation driven by delays in shipments of platforms and components as Moscow focuses on its own wartime requirements.

A Partnership Losing Geopolitical Influence

This all suggests that the Indo-Russian relationship no longer carries the same strategic heft it previously did. During the era of superpower rivalry, India enjoyed preferential trade terms and economic entry to the Soviet Union and its allies. This privileged relationship peaked in 1971 with a Pact of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, concluded ahead of a war with Pakistan where Islamabad was supported by the US and China. Although both nations have sought to maintain a appearance of this special tie through a "unique and elevated" alliance declared in 2010, the truth is that their interaction lacks the same importance as New Delhi has substantially deepened ties with the Western world.

Broadening and Underlying Contradictions

New Delhi is unlikely to cut its crucial links with Moscow. Yet, as Western pressure increases on India to curtail its purchases of Russian oil, both nations are seeking to diversify the relationship into other areas. During Putin's visit, they announced an economic cooperation programme extending until 2030, designed to make their relations "broader, balanced and long-lasting". This includes enhancing market access for Indian products to address a trade deficit heavily skewed in Russia's favor. Cooperation between the two spans several key strategic fields – from space and nuclear energy to defence and agriculture.

Sentimental Affinity and Perceived Reliability

At an ideological level, a high degree of affinity with Russia persists, especially among older cohorts of officials in New Delhi who remember Moscow's pivotal role during the Cold War. This has translated into a certain level of understanding for the Russian viewpoint on the Ukraine war. During recent tensions between India and the US, where American officials have made sharp remarks about the Indian economy, many in India view Russia as a increasingly reliable ally.

This key difficulty, naturally, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The extensive declaration released during Putin's visit made no mention to Ukraine, even though it ironically referred to the partnership as an "pillar of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's much-touted assertion that "this is not the era of war", New Delhi's overt steps regarding the conflict have been minimal.

Squaring the Circle: New Delhi's Global Tightrope

This situation does not belie the underlying complexities in India's foreign policy. The nation is set to conclude a free trade agreement with the European Union, after a comparable pact with the UK this year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada announced a three-way technology initiative. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, although efforts are being made to boost cultural contacts between India and Russia.

How can India square this complex equation? New Delhi will be hoping that current peace negotiations will bear fruit, resulting in a cessation of fighting and the removal of a major irritant in its relations with the West. But, should a peace deal is achieved, if it falls short of a "just peace" that respects Ukraine's independence and borders, critical examination of the Indo-Russian relationship will certainly persist in Western governments.