Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.