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For a brief period, the former US president seemed to take a strong position concerning Ukraine. Following issuing statements of "serious repercussions" during the summer in case Vladimir Putin continued blocking peace discussions, the former president ultimately introduced considerable penalties on the Russian biggest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move seriously hindered Putin's capability to fund his war effort in Ukraine.

However, through his newly presented 28-point peace plan for the conflict, reportedly developed by US and Russian officials without Ukraine's or EU involvement, Trump has apparently reverted to his favorable to Russia approach.

Favoring Invasion

The former president's proposal would essentially reward Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while placing the country's political freedom in jeopardy. Although bold declarations that "The nation's independence will be affirmed", much of the initiative in reality compromise that essential autonomy. Seen as a Moscow's wish would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate past, Trump persists to view the war as a basic territorial dispute, as if giving Russia a section of Ukrainian soil will please the president. However, Russia's war is not simply about occupying a destroyed swath of industrial-devastated territory in the Donbas region. It is about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's obvious goal to weaken it so it stops acts as an attractive example for the Russian people of the accountable government that Putin's increasing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Border Surrenders

While freezing in place the already split oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would compel Ukraine to surrender all of Donetsk province. In addition to favoring Russia with area that its forces have been unsuccessful to capture in exceeding a ten years of fighting, this giveaway would make Ukraine's defensive positions severely compromised.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's well-known "fortress belt", the entrenched military defenses that constitute a critical obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these positions, leaving Russian forces a unobstructed route to Kyiv in case he subsequently choose to restart the conflict.

Armed Forces Reductions

Then, in a step that would enable additional conflict more feasible for Russia, the plan would require the nation to diminish the scale of its troops from their current 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's proposal places no such constraints on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a gesture to Russia's efforts to depict Ukraine's democratically elected administration as radicals, Trump's proposal asserts: "Any extremist ideology and practices must be condemned and prohibited." Apparently to emphasize this point, it insists that "The nation will hold democratic votes in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal sets no requirement that Putin jeopardize his regime by conducting votes in Russia.

Defense Guarantees

Certainly, the initiative makes the Russian Federation pledge not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in regulation its position of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". However given that Putin has breached equivalent treaties in the history – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government committed to honor Ukraine's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its historical nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a restoration of seized territory in the Donbas to the government – why should the international community trust Russia this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on western protection assurances. While the initiative promises a "immediate joint defense action" should Russia restart its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the details vary from fuzzy to alarming. The initiative would not only prevent the nation Nato membership but also prohibit member states from deploying military personnel on Ukraine's soil, effectively blocking the security presence, likely headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to prevent Putin from restoring his weakened forces, restocking, and reinvading.

World Reaction

A separate supplementary accord apparently would grant Ukraine with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any later "major, planned, and sustained armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an attack threatening the tranquility of the Western nations." This indicates a armed reaction. Yet unlike a capable national defense – the nation's best deterrent against additional Russian aggression – the success of the parallel accord would hinge on the willingness of Nato leaders, like Trump, to respond through arms to Russia's attacks, a response they have {not